Raws li kev tsim qauv kev coj noj coj ua, thaum ib nrab Lub Peb Hlis, Lub Koom Haum Tshawb Nrhiav Kev Thaj Yeeb Kev Nyab Xeeb (SIPRI) pib tshaj tawm cov ntaub ntawv hais txog cov xwm txheej xyoo tas los ntawm kev siv riam phom thiab khoom lag luam thoob ntiaj teb. Thaum Lub Peb Hlis 16, Lub Tsev Haujlwm tau tshaj tawm thawj feem ntawm cov ntaub ntawv ntawm kev muag riam phom thiab ntau yam cuab yeej siv tub rog xyoo 2010-2014. Cov kws tshaj lij Swedish tau tshuaj xyuas qhov kev pom zoo xaus xyoo tas los thiab txheeb xyuas cov npe khoom lag luam loj tshaj plaws thiab cov tub lag luam. Ib qho ntxiv, tsab ntawv ceeb toom tshiab muaj kev sib piv cov ntsuas rau qhov kev txiav txim siab thiab lub sijhawm tsib xyoos dhau los.
Cov ncauj lus dav dav
Kev sib piv ntawm kev lag luam caj npab thoob ntiaj teb xyoo 2005-2009 thiab 2010-2014 qhia tias tag nrho cov kev lag luam txuas ntxiv mus ntxiv. Txawm hais tias qhov kev hloov pauv tau pom los ntawm ib xyoos rau ib xyoos, dhau tsib xyoos dhau los, kev muag riam phom tau nce ntxiv 16%. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, kev lag luam kev loj hlob hauv 2014 (piv rau xyoo 2013 dhau los) muaj qhov ntsuas me dua li ntawm tsib xyoos, uas tej zaum yuav cuam tshuam nrog kev nce zuj zus hauv kev muag khoom tom qab qhov tsis ua tiav thaum pib ntawm Xyoo 2000s.
Hauv kev tshaj tawm xov xwm rau daim ntawv tshaj tawm, nws tau qhia tias Tebchaws Meskas tau khaws thawj qhov chaw muag khoom riam phom thiab khoom siv hauv tsib xyoos dhau los. Rau Asmeskas kev tiv thaiv kev lag luam hauv xyoo 2010-2014 suav txog 31% ntawm tag nrho cov khoom siv tub rog. Tib lub sijhawm, dhau tsib xyoos dhau los, kev xa tawm ntawm Asmeskas cov riam phom tau nce 23% hauv kev sib piv nrog tsib xyoos dhau los. SIPRI cov kws tshaj lij sau tseg tias Tebchaws Asmeskas ib txwm siv kev koom tes ua tub rog-txuj ci los ua ib txoj cai tswjfwm txawv tebchaws thiab txhais tau tias kom muaj kev nyab xeeb thoob ntiaj teb. Nyob rau xyoo tsis ntev los no, ib qho tshiab tau ntxiv rau xws li "kev ua haujlwm": kev xa tawm pab txhawm rau tiv thaiv kev tiv thaiv kev lag luam nyob rau hauv lub ntsej muag ntawm kev txo qis hauv nws tus kheej xaj.
Russia tseem nyob hauv qhov chaw thib ob hauv cov npe ntawm cov xa khoom loj tshaj plaws, tuav 27% ntawm kev ua lag luam. Tshaj li tsib xyoos dhau los, Kev xa riam phom Lavxias tau nce 37%. Tam sim no Tuam Tshoj yog tus xa khoom loj thib peb hauv ntiaj teb. Qhov ntim ntawm kev muag riam phom Suav hauv tsib xyoos tau nce los ntawm 143%, txawm hais tias nyob rau qhov no, Tuam Tshoj tseem tsis tuaj yeem caum nrog cov thawj coj ua lag luam.
SIPRI cov kws tshaj lij taw qhia qee qhov kev hloov pauv tshiab ntsig txog kev siv riam phom tuaj txawv tebchaws. Yog li, cov tebchaws ntawm Kev Koom Tes Koom Tes ntawm Gulf States txuas ntxiv caj npab lawv tus kheej. Tag nrho kev yuav khoom ntawm rau lub tebchaws ntawm lub koom haum no tau nce 71% nyob rau tsib xyoos dhau los. Ib qho ntxiv, cov xeev no suav txog 54% ntawm kev yuav khoom los ntawm txhua lub tebchaws hauv Middle East. Kev xa tub rog mus rau Saudi Arabia tau loj hlob tshwj xeeb. Nws muaj kwv yees li plaub npaug, thawb Saudi Arabia mus rau qhov chaw thib ob hauv cov neeg siv khoom ntsuas. Qhov laj thawj rau qhov tshwm sim zoo li no yog qhov xav tau rov ua kom cov tub rog rov qab los, vim ob qho qub dhau ntawm cov cuab yeej siv tam sim no thiab kev hem tub rog tshiab.
Asia txuas ntxiv rau nws tus kheej. Ntawm 10 lub tebchaws tseem ceeb hauv kev yuav khoom siv riam phom, ib nrab nyob hauv Asia. Is Nrias teb khaws thawj qhov chaw nrog 15% ntawm lub ntiaj teb kev yuav khoom tag nrho. Ib qho ntxiv, saum 10 suav nrog Suav (5%), Pakistan (4%), Kaus Lim Qab Teb thiab Singapore (3%txhua tus). Yog li, tsuas yog tsib lub xeev Asian suav txog 30% ntawm ntiaj teb kev xa khoom siv riam phom. Kev xa khoom mus rau Is Nrias teb txuas ntxiv mus, suav txog 34% ntawm tag nrho cov neeg Esxias kev yuav khoom. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, Suav teb xyoo 2010-2014. txo kev xa khoom los ntawm 42%. Qhov yuav tsum tau ua ua ntej rau qhov tshwm sim hauv Asmeskas kev lag luam caj npab yog hu ua qhov xav tau txuas ntxiv cov tub rog, nrog rau kev vam khom siab ntawm kev xa khoom tuaj. Qhov xwm txheej tom kawg tau piav qhia meej los ntawm Tuam Tshoj, uas tab tom txhim kho nws txoj kev lag luam thiab, vim li ntawd, txo kev yuav khoom.
Kev tshaj tawm xov xwm tseem hais txog tus lej ntawm lwm qhov kev hloov pauv uas tau ua lossis tau pom tsis ntev los no:
- Tau tsib xyoos, Tebchaws Europe tau txo kev yuav khoom los ntawm 36%. SIPRI cov kws tshaj lij ntseeg tias qhov kev txo qis no yuav xaus rau yav tom ntej. Tawm tsam qhov rov qab los ntawm kev kub ntxhov ntawm Ukraine, qee lub tebchaws nyob sab Europe npaj yuav nce kev tiv thaiv kev siv nyiaj thiab, vim li ntawd, kev yuav khoom siv riam phom;
- Xyoo 2010-2014. kev muag riam phom tsim hauv Tebchaws Yelemees poob 43%. Cov kev poob zoo no tuaj yeem them rau yav tom ntej, thaum xaj los ntawm ntau lub tebchaws Middle East tau txais xyoo tas los pib ua tiav;
- Azerbaijan tau rov ua haujlwm nquag, uas nws cov kev xa khoom tau nce 249% hauv tsib xyoos dhau los;
- Qhov xwm txheej hauv Africa tau hloov pauv: Algeria tau dhau los ua neeg tsim khoom loj tshaj plaws hauv Asmeskas thiab muag riam phom, ua raws Morocco. Ob lub tebchaws no qhia pom kev muag khoom nce siab;
- Iraq, Cameroon thiab Nigeria tab tom rov los sib ntaus ntau pawg neeg ua phem. Piv txwv li, cov tub rog Iraqi xyoo tas los tau txais riam phom los ntawm ntau lub tebchaws, suav nrog Tebchaws Meskas thiab Russia;
- Ntau lub tebchaws tab tom qhia kev txaus siab ntau yam hauv kev tiv thaiv cov foob pob hluav taws. Tshwj xeeb, cov riam phom no tau txais los ntawm cov tebchaws ntawm Middle East.
Cov teb chaws xa tawm
Cov xov xwm tshaj tawm tsuas muaj qee qhov tseem ceeb ntawm txoj kev tshawb fawb tshiab. Hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom, SIPRI cov kws tshaj lij muab ntau yam ntxiv, tsis muaj cov ntaub ntawv txaus nyiam. Piv txwv li, nws tau sib cav tias xyoo 2010-2014. tsuas yog 60 lub xeev tau koom nrog hauv kev muab riam phom thiab khoom siv tub rog. Txawm hais tias qhov no, cov khoom siv feem ntau tau nqa los ntawm tsuas yog tsib lub tebchaws. Tsib tus neeg xa khoom loj tshaj plaws - Tebchaws Asmeskas, Russia, Tuam Tshoj, Lub Tebchaws Yelemees thiab Fabkis - muab 74% ntawm tag nrho cov khoom lag luam ntawm kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb. Kev muag tag nrho ntawm tsib lub saum toj kawg nkaus tau nce 14% nyob rau tsib xyoos dhau los.
Tebchaws Asmeskas muaj 31% thoob ntiaj teb kev lag luam sib faib, nce 2% los ntawm 2005-2009. Tau tsib xyoos, Asmeskas tau muag riam phom muaj nqis txog 43.876 billion daus las. Tebchaws Asmeskas tsis yog hais txog cov khoom siv nkaus xwb, tabsis tseem hais txog cov neeg yuav khoom: Cov riam phom Asmeskas tau muab rau 94 lub tebchaws. Feem ntau ntawm txhua qhov (48%) Asmeskas cov riam phom tau muab rau lub tebchaws Asia thiab Oceania. 32% ntawm kev muag khoom yog nyob hauv Middle East, 11% hauv Tebchaws Europe. Qhov tshwj xeeb, txhua lub tebchaws yuav khoom muaj feem me me ntawm Asmeskas kev xa tawm. Yog li, tus neeg yuav khoom loj tshaj plaws hauv xyoo 2010-2014. dhau los ua Kaus Lim Qab Teb nrog 9% ntawm txhua qhov kev yuav khoom. Qhov thib ob thiab thib peb hauv qhov ntsuas ntawm cov neeg yuav khoom los ntawm Tebchaws Meskas yog nyob hauv UAE thiab Australia nrog rau feem pua ntawm 8%.
Tshaj li tsib xyoos dhau los, Russia txoj kev koom nrog hauv kev lag luam riam phom thoob ntiaj teb tau nce los ntawm 22% txog 27%. Tag nrho tus nqi ntawm kev cog lus rau lub sijhawm no yog $ 37.383 nphom. Cov riam phom Lavxias tau muab rau 56 lub tebchaws hauv ntiaj teb. Ib qho ntxiv, SIPRI cov kws tshaj lij ntseeg tias Russia tab tom muab caj npab rau Lugansk thiab Donetsk Cov Neeg Koom Tes. Tus yam ntxwv tshwj xeeb ntawm kev xa tub rog Lavxias yog cov xaj ntau los ntawm tib lub tebchaws. Yog li, peb tus neeg yuav khoom loj tshaj plaws ntawm riam phom Lavxias - Is Nrias teb, Tuam Tshoj thiab Algeria - qhia txog 60% ntawm cov khoom lag luam xa tawm ntawm Lavxias kev lag luam tiv thaiv. Mus rau Is Nrias teb xyoo 2010-2014 39%ntawm Lavxias cov khoom siv suav nrog, Tuam Tshoj - 11%, Algeria - 8%. Qhov no, tshwj xeeb, cuam tshuam rau kev faib khoom ntawm ib cheeb tsam. Asia thiab Oceania suav txog 66% ntawm cov khoom siv, Africa thiab Middle East - 12% thiab 10%, feem.
Tshaj li tsib xyoos dhau los, Kev xa tawm Suav tau nce 143% kom mus txog $ 7.162 nphom, uas tau tso cai rau Tuam Tshoj nce nws feem ntawm kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb los ntawm 3% rau 5%. Ua tsaug rau qhov no, hauv qhov ntsuas tag nrho ntawm cov neeg xa khoom rau xyoo 2010-2014. Tuam Tshoj nce mus rau qhov chaw thib peb, tshem lub tebchaws Yelemes thiab Fabkis. Tuam Tshoj muab nws cov khoom rau 35 lub tebchaws, tsuas yog peb tus neeg yuav khoom suav nrog 68%. Pakistan tau txais 41%ntawm Suav kev xa riam phom, Bangladesh 16%, Myanmar 12%.
Lub teb chaws Yelemees tab tom txiav cov khoom siv thiab poob nws txoj haujlwm hauv qeb duas ntawm cov neeg xa khoom loj tshaj plaws. Xyoo 2010-2014. Kev xa tawm German poob 43% rau $ 7, 387 nphom, uas yog vim li cas lub teb chaws poob los ntawm qhov thib peb mus rau plaub qhov hauv qeb duas ntawm cov neeg xa khoom loj tshaj plaws. Yav dhau los, Lub teb chaws Yelemees muaj kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb sib koom ntawm 11%, tab sis tam sim no nws tau nqes mus rau 5%. Cov neeg yuav khoom tseem ceeb ntawm riam phom German yog cov tebchaws nyob sab Europe, uas suav txog 30% ntawm cov khoom siv. 26% ntawm cov khoom raug xa mus rau lub tebchaws Asia thiab Oceania, 24% - mus rau cov tebchaws ntawm North thiab South America. Middle Eastern lub teb chaws tau txais 20% ntawm kev tsim khoom, tab sis daim duab no zoo li yuav poob qis. Xyoo tas los, German thawj coj tau txiav txim siab hloov nws txoj cai hauv kev ua tub rog-kev koom tes ua haujlwm. Ntawm lwm yam, nws tau npaj los txo cov khoom siv rau Middle East, qhov twg muaj teeb meem kev nom kev tswv. Cov neeg yuav khoom riam phom loj tshaj plaws hauv Tebchaws Meskas yog Tebchaws Meskas (11%), qhov chaw thib ob thiab thib peb hauv cov npe no yog cov neeg Ixayees thiab Greece nrog 9%thiab 7%, feem.
Ua ke nrog Lub Tebchaws Yelemees, Fab Kis, tam sim no yog tus muab khoom siv riam phom loj tshaj plaws thib tsib hauv ntiaj teb, poob qis ib qho hauv qhov qeb duas. Nws cov khoom xa tawm hauv tsib xyoos dhau los tau poob qis los ntawm $ 9.974 billion (2005-2009) mus rau $ 7.44 nphom - poob 27%. Vim li no, kev sib koom ua lag luam thoob ntiaj teb tau poob los ntawm 8% mus rau 5%. Fabkis tau xa cov ntawv cog lus nrog 74 lub tebchaws thoob ntiaj teb. Tib lub sijhawm, Asia thiab Oceania suav txog 29%ntawm cov khoom siv, Africa - 20%, thiab Middle East - 20%. Teb chaws Europe thiab Asmeskas, nyeg, yuav tsuas yog 16% thiab 14%, feem. Feem ntau ntawm cov khoom lag luam Fabkis mus rau Morocco (18%). Tuam Tshoj thiab UAE tau muab nrog 14% thiab 8% txhua. Nws tau cia siab tias lub xeev cov tub rog Fab Kis xa tawm yuav tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm kev cog lus tshiab rau kev muab lub dav hlau, feem ntau yog kev pom zoo nrog Egypt rau 24 Dassault Rafale cov neeg tua rog.
Txawv teb chaws
Xyoo 2010 thiab 2014, 153 lub tebchaws tau koom nrog hloov kho lawv cov tub rog los ntawm kev yuav khoom. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, qhov ntim ntawm kev yuav khoom tau hloov pauv ntau, uas ua rau muaj qhov sib txawv ntawm kev sib koom ntawm cov tebchaws sib txawv. Yog li, tsib tus neeg xa khoom loj tshaj plaws - Is Nrias teb, Saudi Arabia, Tuam Tshoj, United Arab Emirates thiab Pakistan - suav txog li ib feem peb ntawm txhua qhov kev yuav khoom.
Tus neeg xa khoom loj tshaj plaws nyob rau tsib xyoos dhau los yog Is Nrias teb, uas yav dhau los yog qeb thib ob ntawm kev yuav khoom. Tag nrho cov ntim ntawm nws daim ntawv cog lus ntshuam tau nce los ntawm $ 8.781 billion txog $ 21.036 billion. Raws li qhov tshwm sim, kev faib tawm ntawm Indian kev yuav khoom hauv khw tau nce los ntawm 7% txog 15%. 70% ntawm cov khoom lag luam tub rog tau muab rau Is Nrias teb los ntawm cov tuam txhab Lavxias. Lwm lub tebchaws muab Indian cov tub rog ua tub rog nrog lawv cov khoom hauv qhov ntau me me. Yog li, Asmeskas kev faib tawm (qhov chaw thib ob) hauv Indian kev xa khoom tsuas yog 12%, thaum cov neeg Ixayees (thib peb) muab tsuas yog 7%. Is Nrias teb thov ua tus thawj coj hauv cheeb tsam, uas cuam tshuam rau nws kev yuav khoom siv riam phom thiab khoom siv.
Tam sim no Saudi Arabia nyob rau qib thib ob hauv qeb duas ntawm kev xa cov tebchaws. Xyoo 2005-2009. lub tebchaws no tau txais riam phom muaj nuj nqis $ 1.666 nphom thiab yog li ntawd yog nyob rau 22nd qhov chaw nyob hauv qeb duas tag nrho. Kev nce nqi nce zuj zus mus rau 6, 955 billion (2010-2014) coj Saudi Arabia mus rau qhov chaw thib ob. Cov khoom siv tseem ceeb ntawm riam phom rau lub tebchaws no yog Tebchaws Askiv thiab Tebchaws Meskas - lawv cov khoom hauv kev xa khoom yog 36% thiab 35%, feem. Fab Kis yog tus thib peb hais txog kev muab khoom nrog 6%.
Qhov kawg ntawm kaum xyoo dhau los, Tuam Tshoj yog tus neeg yuav khoom riam phom loj tshaj plaws. Xyoo 2005-2009. nws yuav riam phom thiab khoom siv muaj nuj nqis $ 11.445 nphom. Xyoo 2010-2014. tus nqi ntawm cov khoom lag luam xa tuaj poob rau $ 6.68 nphom, uas yog vim li cas Tuam Tshoj poob mus rau qhov thib peb hauv qeb duas. Kev faib tawm ntawm Suav xaj hauv kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb, nyeg, poob los ntawm 9% txog 5%. Russia tau txais ntau qhov kev xaj Suav (61%). Qhov thib ob thiab thib peb cov neeg xa khoom tuaj rau Tuam Tshoj nyob rau xyoo tas los no yog Fabkis (16%) thiab Ukraine (13%). Qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb rau kev poob qis hauv kev xa khoom tuaj yog kev txhim kho maj mam ntawm Suav kev lag luam tiv thaiv. Muaj ntau cov khoom tsim nyog tau tsim tawm ntawm nws tus kheej, txawm hais tias muaj ntau yam khoom tseem yuav tsum tau yuav los ntawm txawv teb chaws.
Qhov chaw thib plaub hauv qeb duas ntawm cov neeg xa khoom loj tshaj plaws ntawm riam phom thiab khoom siv tau khaws tseg los ntawm United Arab Emirates. Xyoo 2005-2009, lub xeev no siv 6, 421 txhiab daus las ntawm cov khoom lag luam tub rog, hauv xyoo 2010-2014. - 6,186 billion. Vim tias kev txiav tus nqi, lub teb chaws txoj kev koom nrog hauv ntiaj teb kev xa khoom kuj tau poob qis hauv cov ntsiab lus meej. Yav dhau los, nws yog 5%, tam sim no nws yog 4%. UAE yuav yuav nws cov riam phom feem ntau los ntawm Tebchaws Meskas (58%). Fabkis thiab Russia muaj cov khoom sib faib me me hauv Emirati cov khoom xa tuaj, uas tau muab 9% ntawm cov khoom lag luam xav tau txhua.
Pakistan kaw tsib lub npe saum toj kawg nkaus ntawm cov neeg xa khoom. Hauv ib nrab ntawm ib nrab ntawm kaum xyoo dhau los, lub xeev no tau siv $ 3.717 nphom hauv kev yuav khoom thiab nyob hauv yim qhov chaw hauv qeb duas. Xyoo 2010-2014. cov nqi nce mus rau 6, 102 billion thiab coj lub tebchaws mus rau kab thib tsib. Pakistan txoj kev faib khoom hauv ntiaj teb tau nce los ntawm 3% txog 5%. Lub hauv paus tseem ceeb rau qhov no tau ua los ntawm Tuam Tshoj, uas ua tiav 51% ntawm Pakistani xaj. Qhov thib ob thiab thib peb cov neeg xa khoom raws li qhov ntim ntawm cov ntawv cog lus yog Asmeskas (30%) thiab Sweden (5%).
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Raws li koj tuaj yeem pom, nyob rau tsib xyoos dhau los, ntau qhov kev hloov pauv tseem ceeb tau pom nyob rau thoob ntiaj teb cov caj npab thiab cov cuab yeej siv tub rog ua lag luam. Ua ntej tshaj plaws, nws yog qhov yuav tsum tau nco txog kev nce qib ntawm kev ua lag luam, txuas ntxiv tom qab qhov tsis ua tiav ntawm kev pib xyoo 2000s. Ib qho ntxiv, kev ntsuas ntawm cov neeg xa khoom thiab cov neeg xa khoom tau hloov pauv nyob rau tsib xyoos dhau los. Nws yog qhov tseem ceeb uas tau muaj qhov hloov pauv me me hauv kev ntsuas tus neeg xa khoom vim qhov nce ntawm kev xa tawm Suav. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, cov tebchaws uas sawv cev los ntawm Tebchaws Meskas thiab Russia tau maj mam nce lawv cov kev lag luam, tshem cov neeg sib tw thiab tshem cov ntawv cog lus tshiab.
Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, cov npe ntawm cov neeg tuaj txawv tebchaws tau hloov pauv ntau dua. Qee lub tebchaws tab tom nce kev siv nyiaj riam phom tuaj txawv tebchaws, thaum lwm lub tebchaws tab tom txiav. Vim li no, kev hloov pauv tseem ceeb tau pom txawm tias nyob rau saum tsib. Ua ntej tshaj plaws, qhov nce siab hauv kev yuav khoom ntawm Saudi Arabia thiab txo qis hauv Suav cov khoom lag luam yog kev txaus siab.
Cov ntaub ntawv tshaj tawm los ntawm SIPRI yog qhov kev txaus siab rau ob tus kws tshaj lij thiab cov neeg nyiam. Ob peb hnub dhau los, cov ntaub ntawv tau tshaj tawm ntawm lub xeev kev lag luam riam phom thoob ntiaj teb xyoo 2010-2014. Nyob rau yav tom ntej, Cov kws tshaj lij hauv Stockholm yuav tshaj tawm ob peb lwm cov ntawv tshaj tawm piav qhia txog ntau yam kev ua lag luam thiab nws lub xeev yav dhau los xyoo 2014.
