"Arab Spring" rau cov Arab lawv tus kheej, tsawg kawg hauv cov tebchaws uas nyob hauv qab no, tau dhau los ua kev puas tsuaj tag. Tab sis raws li cov txheej txheem no, cov neeg Kurds muaj txoj hauv kev thaum kawg tau txais lawv lub xeev. Thaum qhov teeb meem ntawm "VPK" no tau npaj rau kev tshaj tawm, nws tseem tsis tau paub tias qhov tshwm sim ntawm kev cog lus xaiv tsa thaum lub Cuaj Hlis 25 hauv Iraqi Kurdistan yuav yog li cas. Tab sis cov Kurds tuaj yeem yuam lawv tus kheej kom suav nrog hauv txhua qhov xwm txheej kev nom kev tswv.
Ib zaug ntawm qhov xub thawj ntawm Kurdish kev ywj pheej txav mus los, cov neeg Kurds Turkish tau ploj mus rau qhov tsaus ntuj. Lawv pawg sib ntaus sib tua yeem yeem tsiv mus rau Iraq thiab Syria hauv 2013, yog li lawv cov kev ua ntawm thaj av ntawm Qaib ntxhw nws tus kheej yog tam sim no tsis tu ncua. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, kev tswj hwm kev tswj hwm ntau ntxiv ntawm Erdogan tau txiav tawm sai sai ntawm kev ywj pheej uas tau pib nyob rau xyoo 2000s lig hauv kev sib raug zoo nrog cov neeg Kurds, rov qab mus rau txoj cai tswjfwm hnyav los ntawm kev quab yuam. Ntxiv mus, tam sim no txoj cai no nthuav mus rau thaj tsam ntawm cov tebchaws nyob sib ze.
Cov Iranian Kurds tseem tsis pom ib qho kev cia siab tshwj xeeb: tsoomfwv hauv Tehran feem ntau thiab Iranian Cov Tub Rog Tshwj Xeeb tshwj xeeb tseem muaj zog heev. Tab sis qhov kev cia siab zoo, zoo li nws zoo li tam sim no, tau tshwm sim rau Iraqi thiab Syrian Kurds.
Hauv Iraq - Peshmerga
Iraqi Kurds tau txais "yuav luag kev ywj pheej", thiab tib lub sijhawm cov xwm txheej ntawm cov phooj ywg ze tshaj plaws ntawm Tebchaws Meskas rov qab rau xyoo 1991, tam sim ntawd tom qab "Cua daj cua dub". Xyoo 2003, tom qab qhov kev swb zaum kawg ntawm Iraq thiab kev rhuav tshem ntawm Hussein, Kurdish de facto kev ywj pheej tau ua tiav, thaum cov neeg Asmeskas "tsis ua npe" tus thawj tswj hwm ntawm tag nrho Iraq mus rau Kurds, txawm tias muaj lub zog txwv. Ib qho ntawm cov yam ntxwv tseem ceeb tshaj plaws ntawm qhov kev ywj pheej no yog kev ua tub rog Peshmerga, uas yog qhov tseem ceeb ua tub rog puv ntoob. Tus naj npawb tseeb ntawm cov tsheb tiv thaiv thiab cov phom loj ntawm Peshmerga tsis paub, tab sis cov suav yeej mus rau ntau pua chav nyob.
Cov khoom siv ntawm Iraqi Kurds tau ua raws riam phom thiab khoom siv ntawm Saddam Hussein cov tub rog. Hauv 80s, Iraqi Cov Tub Rog Tub Rog muaj txog li kaum txhiab lub tsheb ua tub rog thiab ntau txog tsib txhiab lub phom loj. Qhov poob tseem ceeb hauv kev ua tsov rog nrog Iran tau poob ntau los ntawm tsis muaj qhov khoom plig tseem ceeb. Tsis tas li ntawd, ib feem ntau ntawm cov cuab yeej txeeb los ntawm Iran yog tib yam li cov tub rog Iraqi tau muaj, txij li thaum ua tsov rog, Tuam Tshoj thiab, rau qhov tsawg dua, USSR tau muab cov riam phom tib yam rau ob qho kev sib cav. Txhua yam khoom siv tsis tshua muaj neeg zoo li poob rau hauv kev ua tsov rog ob ntawm Iraq thiab Tebchaws Meskas. Tab sis qhov txaus txaus, cov lej tseeb ntawm cov kev poob no tseem tsis tau tshaj tawm rau pej xeem. Pom tau tias, ib feem loj ntawm "Saddam qhov khoom kim heev" tau mus rau cov neeg Kurds hauv lub xeev uas tau npaj txhij rau kev tawm tsam, txawm tias tom qab ntawd cov nuj nqis ntawm Soviet thiab Suav tso tsheb hlau luam, tsheb sib tua tub rog, cov tub rog nqa phom thiab phom los ntawm Peshmerga mus rau ntau pua leej.
Tam sim no Iraqi pab tub rog tau dhau los ua qhov thib ob ntawm kev txhawb nqa cov tub rog Kurdish. Cov Kurds tsis tau tawm tsam nrog nws ncaj qha, tab sis xyoo 2014, raws li koj paub, kev sib cais ntawm Iraqi Cov Tub Rog Tub Rog, nyob rau sab qaum teb ntawm lub tebchaws, yooj yim sib tsoo thiab khiav tawm hauv kev ua phem ntawm Islamic Caliphate, tso tseg riam phom thiab khoom siv. Qee yam ntawm cov cuab yeej no tswj kom cuam tshuam cov neeg Kurds, lwm qhov uas lawv tau ntes hauv kev sib ntaus nrog "Caliphate", vim tias txog thaum 2015, qhov tseeb, tsuas yog cov Kurds tawm tsam hauv Iraq tawm tsam Sunni radicals. Ib qho ntxiv, muaj cov khoom siv riam phom thiab khoom siv ncaj qha rau cov neeg Kurds los ntawm Tebchaws Meskas thiab Lub Tebchaws Yelemees. Cov no yog cov caj npab me me, ATGM "Milan", cov tsheb tiv thaiv "Dingo" (20 chav nyob), "Cayman", "Badger".
Tam sim no, peshmerga tab tom tawm tsam "caliphate", tshwj xeeb, nws tau koom nrog hauv kev tshem tawm ntawm Mosul. Tab sis qhov no tsis yog txhais tau tias ua tsov rog rau kev sib koom ua ke Iraq, tab sis tsuas yog nthuav tawm ntawm nws tus kheej lub zog. Lub tswv yim ntawm kev hloov kev ywj pheej los ntawm de facto rau de jure (los ntawm kev xaiv tsa pej xeem nrov) tau dhau los ua tus tseem ceeb hauv Iraqi Kurdistan. Baghdad, Tehran thiab Ankara tau tawm tsam qhov no. Washington yog nyob rau hauv txoj haujlwm me me heev. Ob qho tam sim no tsoomfwv Iraqi thiab cov Kurds tau suav tias yog nws cov phoojywg zoo, uas nws nyiam ua qhov kev xaiv tseem tsis meej. Pom tau tias, Tebchaws Meskas yuav ua nws qhov kawg kom ua tiav qhov kev tshem tawm ntawm kev xaiv tsa thiab khaws cia cov xwm txheej tam sim no.
Thiab hauv Syria - "nruab nrab"
Ua ntej pib kev tsov rog hauv tebchaws Syria, cov neeg Kurds hauv cheeb tsam tsis tau thov dab tsi yooj yim vim yog lawv cov lej tsawg. Kev ua tsov rog hloov pauv qhov xwm txheej, tso cai rau cov neeg Kurds nyob rau feem ntau ntawm thaj tsam sab qaum teb thiab sab qaum teb sab hnub tuaj ntawm Syria. Cov Kurds yeej tsis tshaj tawm lawv tus kheej txhawb Assad, tab sis yuav luag tsis muaj kev sib cav ntawm lawv cov tub rog thiab tsoomfwv cov tub rog thoob plaws hauv kev ua rog. Qhov "kev ntsiag to ntsiag to" no tau piav qhia los ntawm kev sib tw ntawm cov neeg sib tw - Sunni radicals ntawm txhua yam. Vim li no tib yam, Moscow tau hais lus zoo nrog cov Kurds, uas tau muab lawv nrog qee yam riam phom, feem ntau yog caj npab me me.
Txawm li cas los xij, cov khoom siv hauv Lavxias tau txwv tsawg heev, thiab Syrian Kurds tsis tuaj yeem tawm tsam ntawm lawv cov nuj nqis. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, rau txhua qhov tshwm sim, txawm hais tias lawv tsis nplua nuj hauv kev siv thev naus laus zis zoo li lawv cov neeg hauv tebchaws Iraqi, lawv tsis tau ntsib ib qho tshwj xeeb tsis txaus ntawm nws. Raws li tau hais los saum no, cov neeg Kurds tsis tau tawm tsam Assad cov tub rog, tab sis lawv tuaj yeem ntes qee yam khoom siv uas cov tub rog Syrian tau tso tseg thaum ntxov ntawm kev ua tsov rog. Lwm qhov ntawm cov cuab yeej raug ntes hauv kev tawm tsam nrog Islamic radicals. Ib qho ntxiv, muaj kev xa riam phom mus rau Syrian Kurds los ntawm lawv cov pab pawg neeg Iraqi. Tsawg kawg, qhov tseeb ntawm kev poob ntawm Asmeskas M1117 cov tub rog tiv thaiv tub rog los ntawm Syrian Kurds tau sau tseg, uas, ntawm chav kawm, tsis tau ua haujlwm nrog pab tub rog Syrian, tab sis pab tub rog Iraqi muaj cov tsheb zoo li no.
Thaum kawg, Syrian Kurds tam sim no tau txais riam phom ntau los ntawm Tebchaws Meskas. Txij thaum pib ntawm kev ua tsov rog pej xeem txog thaum ib nrab xyoo 2016, Washington, hauv kev tshawb fawb ntawm cov lus dab neeg "kev tawm tsam me me" hauv Syria, zoo heev ua cov tub rog Sunni. Qhov ua tiav ntawm qhov kev tu siab no tau los rau cov neeg Asmeskas nyob rau hauv Obama lig, nrog rau kev nkag siab tias tsuas yog kev tawm tsam me ntsis hauv Syria yog qhov tseeb ntawm cov neeg Kurds. Raws li Trump, Asmeskas-Kurdish kev sib koom tes tau ua tiav tag nrho. Txhawm rau tsim cov tsos ntawm "koom nrog Syrian" kev sib koom ua ke, cov neeg Asmeskas tau rub ob peb pab pawg me me mus rau hauv kev koom tes nrog cov Kurds.
Txawm hais tias Moscow tsis tau tshem tawm kev sib raug zoo nrog cov neeg Syrian Kurds, nws yeej tsis tshwj xeeb zoo li lawv txoj kev koom tes nrog Washington. Damascus nyiam nws txawm tias tsawg dua. Yog li ntawd, Moscow thiab Damascus tsis tau tawm tsam tiag rau kev ua haujlwm uas Tub Rog Tub Rog Tub Rog tau ua nyob rau sab qaum teb Syria thaum xyoo 2016 - thaum ntxov 2017. Ankara lub hom phiaj yog txhawm rau tiv thaiv kev tsim txoj siv txuas ntxiv ntawm thaj chaw Kurdish nyob thoob plaws ciam teb Turkish-Syrian. Cov Turks, ntawm tus nqi ntawm kev poob hnyav, tau tswj hwm los tiv thaiv kev sib koom ua ke ntawm "Afri" (Western) thiab "Rozhava" (Sab Hnub Tuaj) Kurds. Tom qab ntawd, lawv kev nce qib ntxiv mus rau Syria tau raug thaiv los ntawm cov tub rog Syrian-Lavxias los ntawm sab hnub poob thiab cov tub rog Kurdish-Asmeskas los ntawm sab hnub tuaj.
Thaum tshem Ankara kom txawj siv los ntawm qhov kev ua si, Moscow thiab Washington nrog lawv cov phooj ywg hauv zej zog koom nrog kev tawm tsam rau "Caliphate qub txeeg qub teg." Cov Kurds, nrog kev txhawb nqa tseem ceeb ntawm cov neeg Asmeskas, tau pib ua phem rau Raqqa, "peev" ntawm Syrian ib feem ntawm "Caliphate."Cov tub rog Syrian, tsis muaj kev cuam tshuam hauv cov txheej txheem no, ntws ncig Kurds los ntawm sab qab teb, mus txog sab xis ntawm Euphrates thiab thaiv qhov ua ntej ntxiv ntawm Kurds mus rau sab qab teb, raws li lawv tau ua yav dhau los, ua ke nrog cov Kurds, thaiv Turks. Nyob rau hauv lem, cov Kurds tau maj nrawm mus rau sab laug ntawm Euphrates mus rau Deir ez-Zor, uas tsis tau thaiv los ntawm cov tub rog Syrian. Lub hom phiaj ntawm Kurds tau qhia meej kom tiv thaiv cov tub rog Syrian hla hla Euphrates. Thiab qhov no yuav ua rau muaj kev sib cav ncaj qha ntawm cov tub rog Syrian thiab cov Kurds, nrog "caliphate" tseem tsis tau tiav.
Nws nyuaj heev uas yuav hais dab tsi yuav tshwm sim tom ntej. Yog tias "caliphate" raug tshem tawm, Washington yuav tsum txiav txim siab. Nws yuav nyuaj heev rau nws kom ua rau Syrian Kurds tsim lawv lub xeev. Ua ntej tshaj, qhov no yog kev ua txhaum txoj cai thoob ntiaj teb, txawm yog rau Tebchaws Meskas. Qhov thib ob, qhov no yog qhov ua ntej pom tseeb rau Iraqi Kurds, uas Washington, ntawm qhov tsis sib xws, tab tom sim ua kom tsis txhob tshaj tawm kev ywj pheej. Qhov thib peb, qhov no yuav luag tiav nrog Ankara, uas yuav yog lub zog tshaj plaws rau Asmeskas txoj haujlwm hauv cheeb tsam. Ntawm qhov tod tes, tawm ntawm cov neeg Kurds los daws nrog Assad lawv tus kheej - ntawm ib sab thiab Erdogan - ntawm qhov tod, yog kev ntxub ntxaug heev txawm tias rau Washington. Thiab Trump yuav tsis tsuas yog tso txoj haujlwm hauv Syria. Tej zaum nws yuav muag cov Kurds rau Damascus lossis Ankara, tab sis rau qee tus nqi ncaj ncees los ntawm nws qhov kev xav.
Raws li qhov tshwm sim, "Arab Spring" tuaj yeem dhau los ua "Kurdish caij nplooj ntoo hlav". Lossis rub cov neeg Kurds tom qab cov neeg Arab mus rau kev puas tsuaj tag.
